One thing that 2020 has taught us is that predicting the future is fraught with danger. For instance who knew it would get this cold in Brisbane this winter.
Of course the massive unknown has been the Covid-19 pandemic, which has affected so many lives.
In recent times a couple of Australia’s leading property experts have had some very promising things to say about the property market in Brisbane.
Depending on where you look, dark clouds appear to have gathered over Australia’s property market.
Major banks like Commonwealth Bank, NAB, ANZ and research firms like SQM have predicted a “worst-case” property price falls as high as 32%, with the two biggest property markets – Sydney and Melbourne – to be the worst-affected.
Meanwhile there’s been a drastic shift in property price expectations among buyers.
Switzer Financial Group found that in February, 66% of Australians thought property prices would rise over the next 12 months. In May, that number fell to 10%.
But Australia doesn’t have the singular property market, and is instead comprised of many different ones.
Buyers agency Propertyology has completed a new research report ranking the eight different capital city property markets in terms of their 12-month outlook.
Here’s how each capital city ranked:
Brisbane in second spot
Propertyology thinks Brisbane will be the second hottest capital city property market in the coming months.
“Brisbane’s property market is in second spot. Propertyology has been publicly critical of our home city on more than one occasion over recent years – proof of our impartiality – and we remain unchanged from our long-held view that Brisbane’s soft private sector job growth is an important missing link for otherwise solid fundamentals,” Mr Pressley said.
Reasons to buy in Brisbane include affordable housing compared to other capital cities and a balanced supply of housing.
Terry Rider another leading property analysts has some very positive things to say about the North Brisbane property market as well.
The Brisbane market was poised for a long overdue boom before Covid-19 struck. As we wrote in the previous edition: “Every statistic that matters depicts uplift in the Brisbane market and prices are expected to rise in 2020. Many commentators have forecast a Brisbane boom in recent years, though many were simply assuming that the Queensland capital would follow the lead of Melbourne and Sydney. Brisbane, however, has lacked the core growth drivers that boosted markets in the two biggest cities.
“But, increasingly, growth parameters are lining up for Brisbane. Population data is favourable, the affordability comparison is helpful, surveyed investors say they are targeting Brisbane – and the major piece of the puzzle previously missing, infrastructure spending, is starting to happen.”
Because of those factors, we believe Brisbane will return to strength quickly in the recovery-from-corona phase.
As we often find with these surveys, there is particular strength in the northern suburbs of Brisbane – the Brisbane North precinct and the Moreton Bay LGA jointly account for half of the 28 suburbs ranked as rising markets. The southside has many of the struggling markets and Brisbane’s inner-city provides all of the danger markets.
In our analysis we divide the sprawling Brisbane City LGA into five precincts (inner, north, south, east and west) while the more distant parts of the metro area are covered by the LGAs of Ipswich, Logan, Redland and Moreton Bay – a total of nine precincts.
The Brisbane North precinct and its neighbour Moreton Bay Region are the standouts, as they have been in our surveys in the past.
The Moreton Bay Region LGA has regularly been the best-performing Brisbane market, boosted by affordability, good infrastructure and proximity to employment nodes (including a new university campus). And its status has been enhanced in this survey, with the number of rising suburbs increasing from eight to nine. This LGA also has 10 suburbs ranked as consistency markets, which overall creates a strong result for this precinct in a virus-impacted market.
Leading suburbs include Petrie (quarterly sales of 43-47-53-69-66), Strathpine (65-79-81-83) and Banksia Beach (46-54-67-68-70).
Brisbane North has 5 suburbs classified as rising markets, 9 ranked as consistency markets and none ranked as declining or danger markets. There are two particular clusters with strongly-performing suburbs: the inner north (which includes suburbs like Newmarket, Windsor, Stafford and Kedron), and the north-east precinct (which includes Nudgee, Nundah, Northgate and Wavell Heights).
Ashgrove, with quarterly sales of 54-57-60-71-74, is typical of the suburbs with rising trajectories. Zillmere (42-47-49-56-62-64) is another of the growth markets.